PRESS NOTE

QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

FOR THE FIRST QUARTER (APRIL-JUNE) OF 2002-03

The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the quarterly estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), for the first quarter [Apr-Jun (Q1)] of 2002-03, both at constant (1993-94) and current prices. The details of the estimate are presented below.

Estimate at constant (1993-94) prices

2. Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (1993-94) prices for Q1 of 2002-03 is estimated at Rs. 3,11,867 crore, as against Rs. 2,94,299 crore in Q1 of 2001-02, showing a growth rate of 6.0 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

3. The sectors which registered significant growth in Q1 of 2002-03 over Q1 of 2001-02 are ‘mining and quarrying’ at 5.3 per cent, ‘electricity, gas & water supply’ at 5.3 per cent, ‘construction’ at 6.3 per cent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 7.4 per cent, ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 9.7 per cent and ‘community, social and personal services’ at 5.6 per cent. The growth rates in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’, and ‘manufacturing’ sector have been estimated at 4.4 per cent, and 3.8 per cent, respectively.

4. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture & Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in Q1 of 2002-03, the crops rice, wheat, coarse cereals and pulses during the Rabi season (which ends in June) of 2001-02 recorded growth rates of 6.2 per cent, 3.9 per cent, 26.2 per cent, and 36.0 per cent, respectively over the corresponding season in the previous year. Among the commercial crops, the production of oilseeds registered a growth rate of 14.3 per cent during the rabi season of 2001-02. The crops cotton, and sugarcane have recorded growth rates of 21.1 per cent, and (-) 2.3 per cent respectively in their production during the year 2001-02.

5. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of 7.0 per cent, 3.8 per cent and 3.7 per cent, respectively during Q1 of 2002-03, as compared to the growth rates of (-) 1.5 per cent, 2.6 per cent and 2.2 per cent in these sectors during Q1 of 2001-02. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and finished steel registered growth rates of 8.1 per cent and 6.9 per cent, respectively during Q1 of 2002-03.

6. Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 8.7 per cent and (-) 0.7 per cent, respectively during Q1 of 2002-03. The other key indicators, namely, production of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, aggregate bank deposits, bank credits and revenue expenditure of central government, respectively have shown growth rates of 34.3 per cent, 12.4 per cent, 18.4 per cent, 24.8 per cent and 16.3 per cent, respectively, during Q1 of 2002-03, over Q1 of 2001-02.

Estimate at current prices

7. GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q1 of 2002-03, is estimated at Rs. 5,18,605 crore, as against Rs.4,79,868 crore in Q1, 2001-02, showing a rise of 8.1 per cent.

8. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups, food articles, logs and timber, fish, minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 2.0 per cent, zero per cent, 6.8 per cent, 0.5 per cent, 1.1 per cent, 8.0 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively during Q1 of 2002-03, over Q1 of 2001-02. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 4.5 per cent during Q1 of 2002-03 over Q1 of 2001-02.

9. Estimates of GDP at factor cost and the growth rates, by kind of economic activity for Q1 of 2002-03 and the corresponding period in 2001-02 at constant (1993-94) and current prices are given in Statements 1 and 2.

10. The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter July-September, 2002 (Q2 of 2002-03) will be on 31.12.2002.

STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF GDP FOR Q1 (APRIL-JUNE) OF 2002-03

(at 1993-94 prices)

Industry	APRIL-JUNE (Q1)
	(Rs. in crore) Gross Domestic Product for Q1 of			Percentage change Over previous year Q1
	2000-01	2001-02	2002-03	2001-02	2002-03
1. agriculture, forestry & fishing	70779	71561	74731	1.1	4.4
2. mining & quarrying	6571	6554	6900	-0.3	5.3
3. manufacturing	49706	51042	52961	2.7	3.8
4. electricity, gas & water supply	7481	7771	8182	3.9	5.3
5. construction	15837	15813	16814	-0.2	6.3
6. trade, hotels, transport & communication	63535	66425	71368	4.5	7.4
7. financing, ins., real est. & bus. services	35977	38480	42211	7.0	9.7
8. community, social & personal services	34405	36652	38700	6.5	5.6
GDP at factor cost	284292	294299	311867	3.5	6.0

STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF GDP FOR Q1 (APRIL-JUNE) OF 2002-03

(at current prices)

Industry	APRIL-JUNE (Q1)
	(Rs. in crore) Gross Domestic Product for Q1 of			Percentage change Over previous year Q1
	2000-01	2001-02	2002-03	2001-02	2002-03
1. agriculture, forestry & fishing	116796	120075	128144	2.8	6.7
2. mining & quarrying	9869	10889	11524	10.3	5.8
3. manufacturing	71221	75831	79570	6.5	4.9
4. electricity, gas & water supply	11654	13495	15346	15.8	13.7
5. construction	28674	30190	32687	5.3	8.3
6. trade, hotels, transport & communication	93288	102367	111499	9.7	8.9
7. financing, ins., real est. & bus. services	55516	62643	69888	12.8	11.6
8. community, social & personal services	57922	64376	69947	11.1	8.7
GDP at factor cost	444939	479868	518605	7.9	8.1